Upcoming Workshop: Integrating Ocean Observations to Improve NOAA’s Hurricane Intensity Forecasts
The GOMO-led Extreme Events Ocean Observations Task Team is organizing the workshop: Integrating Ocean Observations to Improve NOAA’s Hurricane Intensity Forecasts. The workshop will be held virtually from Tuesday, January 26 through Thursday, January 28, 2021. This workshop will focus on upper ocean and air-sea interface observing, analysis, and modeling by developing a framework for coordinated ocean observing in support of hurricane intensity science and forecasting. We aim to will bring together leaders in the observational and modeling communities to discuss ways to improve integration, coordination, and communication across NOAA as it relates to hurricane intensity forecasting. A workshop report will be written and published that will summarize discussions, key findings, and practical actionable recommendations. Learn more and register here.
Background: Despite marked improvements in tropical cyclone track forecasts, uncertainties in numerical models have resulted in only marginal improvements in intensity forecasts over the past two decades. Research indicates that insufficient observations of upper ocean conditions is a contributing factor to our inability to improve intensity forecasts. Improving NOAA’s hurricane intensity forecasting will require an integrated ocean observing system with both sustained and targeted (i.e. rapidly deployed) ocean observations that can in turn be used to initialize ocean-atmosphere coupled tropical cyclone forecast models. Please visit the workshop website for more information