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Workshop: Integrating Ocean Observations to Improve NOAA’s Hurricane Intensity Forecasts 

Upper Ocean and Air-Sea Interface Boundary Observing, Analysis, Modeling,
and Intensity Forecasting of Hurricanes
Tuesday, January 26 - Thursday, January 28 | 12:30 - 4:30 PM EST

 

 

 

 
12:30 PM Workshop Hosts | Welcome and Opening Remarks
12:45 PM Keynote Address: Societal Impacts and Importance of Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts 
 
1:00 PM Session 1: State of Knowledge of Hurricane Intensity Studies and Forecasts

Session Overview: Present the current state of hurricane intensity forecasts.

  • Current state of hurricane intensity forecasts -- 15 minutes
  • Brief moderated discussion -- 15 minutes

Total session time: 30 minutes
 

1:30 PM Break
 
1:45 PM Session 2: Current State and Future Plans of Modeling and Data Assimilation Efforts for Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

Session Overview: Present modeling efforts from research and operational centers, seek R2O and O2R between the two entities, and identify ocean observations requirements. 

  • 10-minute presentations:
    • HYCOM ocean model and DA
    • ROMS ocean model and DA
    • NOAA coupled models and DA
    • NAVY coupled models and DA
       
  • Moderated Discussion: Identify recommendations and action items -- 45 minutes

Total session time: 1 h 25 minutes
 

3:15 PM Break
 
3:30 PM Session 3:  Observational Activities During Recent Hurricane Seasons (2018-2020)

Session Overview: Review the advancements made in observing platform deployment and coordination that can be built upon for future hurricane seasons.
Identify the emerging challenges in targeted observations and discuss commonalities across groups to identify a path forward.

  • Synthesis of deployment successes and challenges -- 15 minutes 
  • Moderated discussion: Identify recommendations and action items -- 15 minutes

Total session time: 30 minutes
 

4:00 PM Workshop Hosts | Day 1 Reflections and Looking Ahead to Day 2
 
4:15 PM ADJOURN

 

 
12:30 PM Workshop Hosts | Welcome and Opening Remarks
12:45 PM Keynote Address
 
1:00 PM Session 1: Observing the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Air-Sea Interface during Hurricanes

Session Overview: Describe the key observing systems that monitor physical processes, the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the lower atmospheric boundary layer
(i.e., lowest 1 km of the atmosphere over the ocean) and the air-sea transition zone; and identify gaps in models. Include recommendations from atmospheric scientists and oceanographers.

  • Lightning talks: 8 minutes each, 35 minutes total
    • Using observations from buoys, SST capable dropsondes and small uncrewed aircraft to explore the air-sea transition zones
    • Waves and Sea Spray
    • Air-sea fluxes
    • Upper oceanic mixing physics
  • Moderated discussion: Identify recommendations and action items -- 45 minutes

Total session time:  1 hour 20 minutes
 

2:20 PM Break
 
2:30 PM Session 2: Observing the Upper Ocean during Hurricanes

Session Overview: Present how measuring a suite of parameters with different sampling strategies have helped with understanding and prediction of hurricane intensity,
and what data impact studies are guiding us to improve where to measure and spatial/temporal scales that we should measure in the upper ocean.

  • Lightning talks: 8 minutes each, 50 minutes total
    • The value of sustained and targeted ocean observations
      • Continuous upper ocean observations
      • Air deployed ocean surface observations
      • Air deployed upper ocean observations   
    • The value of ocean satellite observations  
    • The value of coordinated ocean observations   
    • New observing platforms
       
3:20 PM Break


3:30 PM Continuation of Session 2: Moderated Discussion
  • Identify recommendations and action items --45 minutes

Total session time: 1 hour 35 minutes
 

4:15 PM Workshop Hosts | Day 2 Reflections by hosts and Looking Ahead to Day 3
 
4:30 PM ADJOURN
12:30 PM Workshop Hosts | Welcome and Opening Remarks
12:45 PM Keynote Address
 
1:00 PM Session 1: Data Management 

Session Overview: Present and discuss how ocean data are acquired, transmitted, and assimilated into models.

  • Data used in numerical models -- 10 minutes
  • Transmitting Data to the GTS -- 10 minutes
  • Moderated Discussion: Identify recommendations and action items -- 25 minutes

Total session time: 45 minutes
 

1:45 PM Break
 
2:00 PM Session 2: Gaps in Ocean Observations

Session Overview: Discuss how analysis and modeling efforts help identify gaps in observations that can be addressed in the short or medium-term to improve ocean analysis and forecasts.

  • Addressing gaps for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season -- 10 minutes
  • Common Challenges between TC and ETC -- 10 minutes
     
  • Discussion: Identification of Gaps -- 30 minutes
    • How gaps are identified (models, analysis, low cost, easy logistics, …)
    • How priorities are determined
    • Gaps for understanding physics and conducting analysis 
    • Gaps for operational ocean forecasts
    • Gaps for ocean-atmosphere coupled models
       
  • Discussion: Practical, Actionable Recommendations to Address Gaps -- 30 minutes
    • Near-term recommendations and solutions 
    • How progress in improving hurricane intensity forecast can be demonstrated through an integrated field campaign during Hurricane Season 2022

Total session time: 1 hour 20 minutes
 

3:30 PM Break
 
3:45 PM Concluding Discussions

Session Objective: Moderator panel presents and discusses the areas that were identified to have had an impact, priorities, requirements,
and other recommendations that can be accomplished in the next 1-2 years, including planning for an integrated field campaign for Hurricane Season 2022.
Conclusions are submitted in a report.

  • Summary of 2-3 main takeaways from each session, including summary of practical actionable recommendations -- 20 minutes
  • Final questions/discussion -- 10 minutes

Total session time: 30 minutes
 

4:15 PM Workshop Hosts | Final Conclusions and Looking Ahead
 
4:30 PM End Workshop

Workshop Steering Committee:

Sid Thurston (NOAA GOMO), Cheyenne Stienbarger (NOAA GOMO), Emily Smith (NOAA  GOMO), Gustavo Goni (NOAA AOML),
Hyun-Sook Kim (NOAA AOML), Joe Cione (NOAA  AOML), Chidong Zhang (NOAA  PMEL), Mark Miller and Christine Bassett (NOAA NWS Office of Observations),
Benjamin LaCour (NOS-IOOS/NOAA Corps) and Terri Paluszkiewicz (Global Drifter Program contractor)