NOAA’S HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS WORKSHOP
Upper Ocean and Air-Sea Interface Boundary Observing, Analysis, Modeling, and Intensity Forecasting of Hurricanes
Tuesday, January 26 - Thursday, January 28 | 12:30 - 4:30 PM EST
Workshop Publications
Workshop Resources:
Data Visualization Tools:
12:00 PM (OPTIONAL) WORKSHOP OPENS FOR TECHNICAL TESTING
- Participants may test the software, troubleshoot, and/or ask questions before the workshop begins.
12:30 PM WORKSHOP FACILITATORS | LOGISTICS
12:45 PM WORKSHOP HOSTS | WELCOME AND OPENING REMARKS
- Day 1 Hosts: David Legler and Jessica Snowden, NOAA Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program
- Welcome, Logistics, Goals, and Expected Outcomes
1:00 PM KEYNOTE ADDRESS: SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND IMPORTANCE OF IMPROVING HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS
1:15 PM SESSION 1: STATE OF KNOWLEDGE OF HURRICANE INTENSITY STUDIES AND FORECASTS
Session Overview: Present the current state of hurricane intensity forecasts.
Moderator: Mark Miller, NOAA NWS Office of Observations
Chat Moderator: Dr. Rick Lumpkin, NOAA AOML
- Current state of hurricane intensity forecasts: Dr. Frank Marks, NOAA AOML Hurricane Research Division — 15 minutes
- Brief moderated discussion — 15 minutes
Total session time: 30 minutes
1:45 PM BREAK
2:00 PM SESSION 2: CURRENT STATE AND FUTURE PLANS OF MODELING AND DATA ASSIMILATION EFFORTS FOR HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS
Session Overview: Present modeling efforts from research and operational centers, seek R2O and O2R between the two entities, and identify ocean observations requirements.
Moderator: Dr. Hyun-Sook Kim, NOAA AOML
Chat Moderator: Dr. Scott Glenn, Rutgers University
- 10-minute presentations:
- HYCOM ocean model and DA: Dr. Matthieu Le Hénaff, NOAA AOML and University of Miami-CIMAS
- ROMS ocean model and DA: Dr. John Wilkin, Rutgers University
- NOAA coupled models and DA: Dr. Avichal Mehra, NOAA NWS Environmental Modeling Center
- NAVY coupled models and DA: Dr. Sue Chen, Naval Research Laboratory
- Moderated Discussion: Identify recommendations and action items — 45 minutes
Total session time: 1 h 25 minutes
3:30 PM BREAK
3:45 PM SESSION 3: OBSERVATIONAL ACTIVITIES DURING RECENT HURRICANE SEASONS (2020)
Session Overview: Review the advancements made in observing platform deployment and coordination that can be built upon for future hurricane seasons.
Identify the emerging challenges in targeted observations and discuss commonalities across groups to identify a path forward.
Moderator: Dr. Sid Thurston, NOAA Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program
Chat Moderator: Dr. Terri Paluszkiewicz, Global Drifter Program
- Synthesis of deployment successes and challenges: Dr. Rick Lumpkin, NOAA AOML — 15 minutes
- Moderated discussion: Identify recommendations and action items — 15 minutes
Total session time: 30 minutes
4:15 PM DAVID LEGLER AND JESSICA SNOWDEN | DAY 1 REFLECTIONS AND LOOKING AHEAD TO DAY 2
4:30 PM ADJOURN
12:00 PM (OPTIONAL) WORKSHOP OPENS FOR TECHNICAL TESTING
- Participants may test the software, troubleshoot, and/or ask questions before the workshop begins.
12:30 PM WORKSHOP HOSTS | WELCOME AND OPENING REMARKS
- Day 2 Hosts: Carl Gouldman and Krisa Arzayus, U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System
- Welcome, Logistics, Goals, and Expected Outcomes
12:45 PM KEYNOTE ADDRESS
- Speaker: Dr. Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA NWS Environmental Modeling Center
1:00 PM SESSION 1: OBSERVING THE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER AND AIR-SEA INTERFACE DURING HURRICANES
Session Overview: Describe the key observing systems that monitor physical processes, the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the lower atmospheric boundary layer
(i.e., lowest 1 km of the atmosphere over the ocean) and the air-sea transition zone; and identify gaps in models. Include recommendations from atmospheric scientists and oceanographers.
Moderator: Dr. Elizabeth Thompson, NOAA ESRL
Chat Moderator: Dr. Joshua Wadler, NOAA AOML
- Lightning talks: 8 minutes each, 35 minutes total
- Using observations from small uncrewed aircraft to explore the air sea transition zone: Dr. Joe Cione, NOAA AOML
- Estimating air-sea fluxes using current observations (e.g., SST capable dropsondes and drones), including comparisons with the model simulations: Dr. Jun Zhang, NOAA AOML
- Waves and Sea Spray: Dr. Shuyi Chen, University of Washington – Atmospheric Sciences
- Upper oceanic mixing physics: Dr. Eric D’Asaro, University of Washington-APL
- Moderated discussion: Identify recommendations and action items — 45 minutes
Total session time: 1 hour 20 minutes
2:20 PM BREAK
2:30 PM SESSION 2: OBSERVING THE UPPER OCEAN DURING HURRICANES
Session Overview: Present how measuring a suite of parameters with different sampling strategies have helped with understanding and prediction of hurricane intensity,
and what data impact studies are guiding us to improve where to measure and spatial/temporal scales that we should measure in the upper ocean.
Moderator: Dr. Travis Miles, Rutgers University
Chat Moderator: Dr. Chidong Zhang, NOAA PMEL
- Lightning talks: 8 minutes each, 50 minutes total
- The value of sustained and targeted ocean observations
- Continuous upper ocean observations: Dr. Molly Baringer, NOAA AOML
- Air deployed ocean surface observations: Dr. Luca Centurioni, Scripps Lagrangian Drifter Laboratory
- Air deployed upper ocean observations: CAPT Beth Sanabia, U.S. Navy
- The value of coordinated ocean observations: Dr. Scott Glenn, Rutgers University
- New observing platforms: Christian Meinig, NOAA PMEL
- The value of sustained and targeted ocean observations
3:15 PM BREAK
3:30 PM CONTINUATION OF SESSION 2: MODERATED DISCUSSION
- Identify recommendations and action items –45 minutes
Total session time: 1 hour 35 minutes
4:15 PM CARL GOULDMAN AND KRISA ARZAYUS | DAY 2 REFLECTIONS BY HOSTS AND LOOKING AHEAD TO DAY 3
4:30 PM ADJOURN
12:00 PM (OPTIONAL) WORKSHOP OPENS FOR TECHNICAL TESTING
- Participants may test the software, troubleshoot, and/or ask questions before the workshop begins.
12:30 PM WORKSHOP HOSTS | WELCOME AND OPENING REMARKS
- Day 3 Hosts: John Cortinas and Molly Baringer, NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
- Welcome, Logistics, Goals, and Expected Outcomes
12:45 PM KEYNOTE ADDRESS
1:00 PM SESSION 1: DATA MANAGEMENT
Session Overview: Present and discuss how ocean data are acquired, transmitted, and assimilated into models.
Moderator: Dr. Joe Cione, NOAA AOML
Chat Moderator: Christine Bassett, NOAA NWS Office of Observations
- Data used in numerical models: Jong Kim, NOAA NWS Environmental Modeling Center — 10 minutes
- Transmitting Data to the GTS: Kevin O’Brien, NOAA PMEL — 10 minutes
- Moderated Discussion: Identify recommendations and action items — 25 minutes
Total session time: 45 minutes
1:45 PM BREAK
2:00 PM SESSION 2: GAPS IN OCEAN OBSERVATIONS
Session Overview: Discuss how analysis and modeling efforts help identify gaps in observations that can be addressed in the short or medium-term to improve ocean analysis and forecasts.
Moderator: Dr. Emily Smith, NOAA Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program
Chat Moderator: Cheyenne Stienbarger, NOAA Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program
- Addressing gaps for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Dr. Gustavo Goni, NOAA AOML — 10 minutes
- Common Challenges between TC and ETC: Dr. Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center — 10 minutes
- Discussion: Identification of Gaps — 30 minutes
- How gaps are identified (models, analysis, low cost, easy logistics, …)
- How priorities are determined
- Gaps for improving hurricane rapid intensification forecasts
- Gaps for understanding physics and conducting analysis
- Gaps for operational ocean forecasts
- Gaps for ocean-atmosphere coupled models
- Discussion: Practical, Actionable Recommendations to Address Gaps — 30 minutes
- Near-term recommendations and solutions
- How progress in improving hurricane intensity forecast can be demonstrated through an integrated field campaign during Hurricane Season 2022
Total session time: 1 hour 20 minutes
3:30 PM BREAK
3:45 PM CONCLUDING DISCUSSIONS
Moderators: Dr. Sid Thurston and Dr. Frank Marks
Session Objective: Review and discuss priorities, requirements, and other recommendations that can be accomplished in the next 1-2 years, with a specific look to planning for an integrated field campaign for Hurricane Season 2022.
Total session time: 30 minutes