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GOMO-Funded Project

Thermodynamic Processes and Forecasting in the Coupled Ocean-Ice Atmosphere System

  • Principal Investigator(s):
  • Fiscal Year: 2023
  • Award Period:
    10/01/2022 - 09/30/2023
  • Partners & Affiliations:
    Earth System Research Labs (ESRL), PSL

Improving Arctic Ocean observations to support sea ice forecasts

As a consequence of rising global temperatures, areas with permanent sea ice in the Arctic Ocean are melting into seasonal, thinning ice patches. This high melt activity is causing an array of changes to ripple throughout the Arctic and are particularly dramatic in sea shelves such as those surrounding Alaska. With these changes rapidly affecting the Arctic, there is a great need to provide information that can keep pace, especially those that support hazard-mitigation, sustainability of resources, and maritime safety.

The Thermodynamics of Ocean-Ice Atmosphere System project aims to advance sea ice and Arctic weather prediction modeling by establishing observation technologies that will support related forecast modeling within and outside of NOAA. These efforts target the dynamic and thermodynamic processes that regulate the transformation of ice. Areas of research include (i) modeling representations of coupled system processes, (ii) the causes, consequences, and predictability of extreme events; and (iii) the energetic exchanges between sea ice and the atmosphere that is associated with cyclones and air mass advection.

FIGURE 1: 2m-Skin Temperature (Celsius) Finding: 2-4 degC bias in seasonal means. 2.6 Linkages between Arctic/sub-Arctic atmospheric transport and sea ice anomalies. Task Lead: Chris Cox (NOAA), Contributor: Paul McKinley (Hollings Scholar)

Project Data

About MOSIAC Database

The Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) was an international research expedition to study the physical, chemical, and biological processes that coupled the Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, and ecosystem.

During MOSAiC, Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL)  collected, transmitted, and hosted the following observations from multiple platforms: upwelling and downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, meteorology, snow depth, surface skin temperature, geodetic information, 3d winds and gas concentrations (for eddy covariance calculations of turbulent latent and sensible heat flux), and snow conductive flux.

About AMOS Database

The Arctic Research Program and Physical Science Laboratory are conducting research using experimental observations made in collaboration with Navy. Working with the Naval Postgraduate School, the University of Washington, and NASA, a study is being conducted that identifies atmospheric subsidence as a mechanism for initiating sea ice melt and another that analyzes the freeze-up in the Beaufort Sea during former Typhoon Merbok in autumn 2022.

  • Project Datasets

    • Met City meteorological and surface flux measurements (Level 2, processed), Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), central Arctic, October 2019 – September 2020. Arctic Data Center Access Data
    • Atmospheric Surface Flux Station #30 measurements (Level 2, processed), Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), central Arctic, October 2019 – September 2020. Arctic Data Center Access Data
    • Atmospheric Surface Flux Station #40 measurements (Level 2, processed), Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), central Arctic, October 2019 – September 2020. Arctic Data Center Access Data
    • Atmospheric Surface Flux Station #50 measurements (Level 2, processed), Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), central Arctic, October 2019 – September 2020. Arctic Data Center Access Data
    • Met City meteorological and surface flux measurements (Level 3, final), Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), central Arctic, October 2019 – September 2020. Arctic Data Center Access Data
    • Atmospheric Surface Flux Station #30 measurements (Level 3, final), Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), central Arctic, October 2019 – September 2020. Arctic Data Center Access Data
    • Atmospheric Surface Flux Station #40 measurements (Level 3, final), Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), central Arctic, October 2019 – September 2020. Arctic Data Center Access Data
    • Atmospheric Surface Flux Station #50 measurements (Level 3, final), Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), central Arctic, October 2019 – September 2020. Arctic Data Center Access Data
    • Harmonized in-situ observations of surface energy fluxes and environmental drivers at 64 Arctic vegetation and glacier sites. PANGEA Bundled Publication. (*PART ONE) Access Data
    • Harmonized in-situ observations of surface energy fluxes and environmental drivers at 64 Arctic vegetation and glacier sites. PANGEA Bundled Publication. (*PART TWO) Access Data
    • Harmonized in-situ observations of surface energy fluxes and environmental drivers at 64 Arctic vegetation and glacier sites. PANGEA Bundled Publication. (*PART THREE) Access Data
    • Harmonized in-situ observations of surface energy fluxes and environmental drivers at 64 Arctic vegetation and glacier sites. PANGEA Bundled Publication (*PART FOUR) Access Data
    • Harmonized in-situ observations of surface energy fluxes and environmental drivers at 64 Arctic vegetation and glacier sites. PANGEA Bundled Publication (*PART FIVE) Access Data
    • Upward and downward broadband shortwave and longwave irradiance and downward diffuse and direct solar partitioning during the MOSAiC expedition. PANGEA. Access Data
    • ShupeTurner cloud microphysics product. ARM Mobile Facility (MOS) MOSAiC (Drifting Obs – Study of Arctic Climate) Access Data

  • MOSAiC Datasets

  • ArcticMet Data

Publications and Reports

  • Lee, C.M., M. DeGrandpre, J. Guthrie, V. Hill, R. Kwok, J. Morison, C.J. Cox, H. Singh, T.P. Stanton, and J. Wilkinson. 2022. Emerging technologies and approaches for in situ, autonomous observing in the Arctic. Oceanography 35(3–4):210–221, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2022.127.Access
  • Calmer R., G. de Boer, J. Hamilton, D. Lawrence, M. Webster, N. Wright, M.D. Shupe, C. Cox, J. Cassano (2023) Perspectives on relationships between summertime surface albedo and melt pond fraction in the central Arctic Ocean from uncrewed aircraft systems, Elementa.Access
  • Clemens-Sewall, D., C. Polashenski, M. M. Frey, C. J. Cox, M. A. Granskog, A. Macfarlane, S. W. Fons, J. Schmale, J. K. Hutchings, L. von Albedyll, D. Perovich (2023) Snow loss into leads in Arctic sea ice: Minimal in typical wintertime conditions, but high in exceptional conditions, Geophysical Research Letters Access
  • Heinemann, G., L. Schefczyk, S. Willmes, M.D. Shupe, (2022), Verification of regional climate model simulations of near-surface variables for the MOSAiC winter period. Elementa, 10(1), https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2022.00033Access
  • Herrmannsdorfer, L., M. Mueller, M.D. Shupe, and P. Rostosky, (2023), Surface temperature comparison of the Arctic winter MOSAiC observations, EFA5 reanalysis and MODIS satellite retrieval. Elementa, 11:1, https://doi/org/10.1525/elementa.2022.00085Access
  • Huang, Y, P.C. Taylor, F.G. Rose, D.A. Rutan, M.D. Shupe, M. Webster, M.M. Smith (2022), Towards a more realistic representation of surface albedo in NASA CERES-derived surface radiative fluxes: a comparison with the MOSAiC field campaign. Elementa, 10(1), https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2022.00013Access
  • Jozef, G., R. Rauterkus, J.J. Cassano, B. Maronga, G. de Boer, S. Dahlke, and C. Cox, (2023a), Derivation and compilation of atmospheric boundary layer properties relating to temperature, wind, stability, moisture, and surface radiation budget over the central Arctic sea ice during MOSAiC. Earth System Science Data.Access
  • Jozef, G., J. Cassano, S. Dahlke, M. Dice, C.J. Cox, and G. de Boer (2023b), An overview of the vertical structure of the atmospheric boundary layer in the Central Arctic during MOSAiC. Elementa, submitted.Access
  • Jozef, G., J.J. Cassano, S. Dahlke, M. Dice, C.J. Cox, and G. de Boer, (2023c), Thermodynamic and kinematic drivers of atmospheric boundary layer stability in the central Arctic during MOSAiC, Elementa, submitted.Access
  • Jung, J. and J. Wilson (with contributions from T. Uttal) (2022), Year of Polar Prediction – Achievements and Impacts. Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7355088Access
  • Kirbus, B., S. Tiedeck, A. Camplani, J. Chylik, S. Crewell, S. Dahlke, K. Ebell, I. Gorodetskaya, H. Griesche, D. Handorf, I. Hoeschel, M. Lauer, R. Neggers, J. Rueckert, M.D. Shupe, G. Spreen, A. Walbroel, M. Wendisch, A. Rinke (2023), Surface impacts and associated mechanisms of a moisture intrusion into the Arctic observed in mid-April 2020 during MOSAiC. Frontiers in Earth Science, 11, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1147848Access
  • Lee, C., M. DeGrandpre, J. Guthrie, V. Hill, R. Kwok, J. Morison, C. Cox, H. Singh, T. Stanton, J. Wilkinson (2022): Emerging technologies for observing the Arctic Ocean. Oceanography, 35(3-4), https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2022.127.Access
  • Oehri et al. (inc S. Morris and C. Cox) (2022), Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic land surface energy budget, Nature Communications, 13, 6379, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34049-3Access
  • Smith, M.M., B. Light, A. Macfarlane, D. Perovich, M.M. Holland, and M.D. Shupe, (2022), The sensitivity of the Arctic ice cover to surface scattering layers. Geophysical Research Letters. 49, e2022GL098349, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098349Access
  • Wilson, J. et al. (inc T. Uttal) (2023), The YOPP Final Summit: Assessing past and forecasting future polar prediction research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104(3), E660-E665, https://doi.org/10/1175/BAMS-D-22-0282.1Access

  • Publications Submitted for Review

    Cox, C.J., M. Gallagher, M.D. Shupe, P.O.G. Persson, A. Solomon, C.W. Fairall, T. Ayers, B. Blomquist, I.M. Brooks, D. Costa, A. Grachev, D. Gottas, J. K. Hutchings, M. Kutchenreiter, J. Leach, S.M. Morris, V. Morris, J. Osborn, S. Pezoa, A. Preusser, L. Riihimaki, and T. Uttal (2023a), Continuous observations of the surface energy budget and meteorology over Arctic sea ice during MOSAiC, Nature Scientific Data.

    Cox, C., A. Solomon, O. Persson, M. Shupe, M. Gallagher, V. Walden, M. Town, and D. Perovich (2023b), Resiliency of the sea ice to warming from early spring southerly advection. To be submitted, Geophys. Res. Lett.

    Cox, C., Z. Lawrence, and S. Dahlke (2023c), Linkages between anomalous mid-April warming at MOSAiC and the evolution of the 2020 polar vortex. To be submitted, Elementa.

    Day, J. et al. (inc T. Uttal, S. Morris) (in prep), The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation. Earth System Dynamics.

    Guy, H., I.M. Brooks, D.D. Turner, C.J. Cox, P.M. Rowe, M.D. Shupe, V.P. Walden, and R.R. Neely III (2023) Observations of fog-aerosol interactions over central Greenland, Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, in review.

    Intrieri, J., A. Solomon, C.J. Cox, O. Persson, G. de Boer, M. Hughes, A. Capatondi, and M. Shupe (2023) Evaluation of the NOAA Experimental Coupled Arctic Forecast System (CAFS), to be submitted, Frontiers

    Morris, S.M. et al. (inc T. Uttal, C. Cox) (in prep) Special Observing Period (SOP) data for the Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP), Earth System Science Data, submitted.

    Neff, W., M.D. Shupe, C.J. Cox, and M. Gallagher (2023) Heat waves, hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, and the melting of Greenland, Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, in prep.

    Rabe et al. (inc. C.J. Cox, M.D. Shupe, O. Persson) (2023) The MOSAiC Distributed Network: an integrated system of autonomous ice-tethered buoys for multidisciplinary atmosphere, snow, ice and ocean observations, Elementa, in prep.

    Riihimaki et al. (inc. C. Cox) (2023) Ocean Surface Radiation Best Practices, Frontiers in Marine Science, in prep.

    Sledd, A., M. Shupe, A. Solomon, C. Cox, D. Perovich, and R. Lei (2023), Snow thermal conductivity and conductive fluxes in the Central Arctic: estimates from observations and implications for models. Elementa, in prep.

    Solomon, A., M. D. Shupe, G. Svensson, N. P. Barton, Y. Batrak, E. Bazile, J. J. Day, J. D. Doyle, H. P. Frank, S. Keeley, T. Remes, M. Tolstykh (2022), An evaluation of short-term forecasts of wintertime boundary-layer and surface energy balance statistics in the Central Arctic. Elementa, accepted.

    Thielke, L., M. Huntemann, G. Spreen, C.J. Cox, V. Ludwig, and M.D. Shupe (2023), Differences in sensible heat exchange based on satellite sub-footprint variability. Thesis chapter, PhD Dissertation, University of Bremen.

    Uttal, T. et al. (inc S. Morris, C. Cox) (2023) Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs): An integrated research data product supporting process oriented investigation and diagnostics. Nature Scientific Data, submitted.

  • Selected Presentations

    Cox, C. and A. Solomon (2023), Assessment of P8 using observations from Utqiaġvik (Barrow), Alaska, NWS-EMC Couple Global Modelling WG, 1, February 2023, online.

    Shupe, M. (2023) 2nd MOSAiC Conference Readout, OAR Arctic All-Hands Meeting, 10 March, 2023, online.

  • Additional Links and Resources

    Arctic Mobile Observing System Website – Access Link

    MOSAiC Data Policy Statement – Access Link